Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
